Pulled from Twitter
Utley Prop Bet

June 26, 2012 -

Found on Twitter this afternoon:


A picosecond after reading that I thought “sure, that’s a great bet.” Then I realized that it was not the first at-bat in his first game back, but the entire game. Also, terms were not specified.

But supposing it was even money, I was still pretty sure this was a good bet for our Tweep.

Now off to the spreadsheet to check.

 

Chase Utley Career to June 26, 2012
Stat Number
Plate Appearances: 4,778
Doubles: 258
Triples: 34
Home Runs: 188
XBH: 480
XBH Rate 10%
Non-XBH Rate 90%

 

Using that as a basis, the chance of going 4 plate appearances without an XBH are (0.9)4 = .655, or 65.5%.

The chance of going 5 plate appearances without an XBH are (0.9)5  = .588 or 58.8%. Still in favor of the “no” on the prop bet.

If Utley somehow gets to the plate 6 times the chance of going without an extra base hit is still 53%. And six plate appearances is not likely, even if Utley were not just making a return from injury.

In case you want to make that prop bet (Will he have 6 PA in the game), you can offer long odds on it. Rollins has only had 6 or more PA in 4 games out of 75 this year. Ian Kinsler has the most games in MLB this year with 6 or more PA, with 8 in 72 games played. Offer 8 to 1 on that and collect some ducats.

 

Written by

Steve Grantz grew up in South Philadelphia, graduated from Central High and went to Penn. Steve works in the software industry to pay for his taste in food and wine, and uses his winnings in weekly poker games to plug up leaks in his sports wagering.

1 Comments to “Pulled from Twitter
Utley Prop Bet”

  1. Steve Grantz says:

    Utley read this. Got mad. Killed first available pitch.

Leave a Reply

Message